COVID-19 may not escalate in India like in Western Europe

There are a few things in India’s favor which keeps me optimistic about Indian scenario with respect to Corona Scare.

1. India was one of the first few countries to impose travel ban to and from China and other affected countries, visas were cancelled and denied entries to all foreigners except select few.

2. Young demography of India, where more than 65% population is below age of 35. Though morbidity is higher. The Mortality is significantly lower in Younger population. Younger people have a much better chance of coping with the virus.

3. Imposition of near total lockdown when we are still in Stage 1 and Stage 2.

4. India has a decent track record of containing flu epidemics and the fact that India is the one of the world’s largest producers of generic drugs.

5. Another possible factor is that India’s weather is warmer — and it is about to get really hot — though that has not been clinically proved to have a major effect. But, it is proven that virus breaks down at higher temperatures and humidity.

6. The government has tried to get ahead of the rumours — the line from honorable prime minister, “Say No to Panic, Say Yes to Precautions.” Was quite impressive and messaging has been pretty clear.

7. Govt. is aggressively ramping up testing capacity for the phase 3. Around 2 million testing kits have been ordered and breakthroughs have been achieved in different ways of testing.

8. High rates of infectious diseases in India like malaria/dengue/TB/leptospirosis etc. eliminates susceptible population and might provide some cross immunity, Like Natural selection theory.

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